Foraging under conditions of short-term exploitative competition: The case of stock traders

Theory purports that animal foraging choices evolve to maximize returns, such as net energy intake. Empirical research in both human and nonhuman animals reveals that individuals often attend to the foraging choices of their competitors while making their own foraging choices. Due to the complications of gathering field data or constructing experiments, however, broad facts relating theoretically optimal and empirically realized foraging choices are only now emerging. Here, we analyze foraging choices of a cohort of professional day traders who must choose between trading the same stock multiple times in a row---patch exploitation---or switching to a different stock---patch exploration---with potentially higher returns. We measure the difference between a trader's resource intake and the competitors' expected intake within a short period of time---a difference we call short-term comparative returns. We find that traders' choices can be explained by foraging heuristics that maximize their daily short-term comparative returns. However, we find no one-best relationship between different trading choices and net income intake. This suggests that traders' choices can be short-term win oriented and, paradoxically, maybe maladaptive for absolute market returns

Estimating the tolerance of species to the effects of global environmental change

Global environmental change is affecting species distribution and their interactions with other species. In particular, the main drivers of environmental change strongly affect the strength of interspecific interactions with considerable consequences to biodiversity. However, extrapolating the effects observed on pair-wise interactions to entire ecological networks is challenging. Here we propose a framework to estimate the tolerance to changes in the strength of mutualistic interaction that species in mutualistic networks can sustain before becoming extinct. We identify the scenarios where generalist species can be the least tolerant. We show that the least tolerant species across different scenarios do not appear to have uniquely common characteristics. Species tolerance is extremely sensitive to the direction of change in the strength of mutualistic interaction, as well as to the observed mutualistic trade-offs between the number of partners and the strength of the interactions.Comment: Nature Communications 4, Article number: 2350, (2013

How structurally stable are global socioeconomic systems?

The stability analysis of socioeconomic systems has been centered on answering whether small perturbations when a system is in a given quantitative state will push the system permanently to a different quantitative state. However, typically the quantitative state of socioeconomic systems is subject to constant change. Therefore, a key stability question that has been under-investigated is how strong the conditions of a system itself can change before the system moves to a qualitatively different behavior, i.e., how structurally stable the systems is. Here, we introduce a framework to investigate the structural stability of socioeconomic systems formed by the network of interactions among agents competing for resources. We measure the structural stability of the system as the range of conditions in the distribution and availability of resources compatible with the qualitative behavior in which all the constituent agents can be self-sustained across time. To illustrate our framework, we study an empirical representation of the global socioeconomic system formed by countries sharing and competing for multinational companies used as proxy for resources. We demonstrate that the structural stability of the system is inversely associated with the level of competition and the level of heterogeneity in the distribution of resources. Importantly, we show that the qualitative behavior of the observed global socioeconomic system is highly sensitive to changes in the distribution of resources. We believe this work provides a methodological basis to develop sustainable strategies for socioeconomic systems subject to constantly changing conditions

On the structural stability of mutualistic systems

In theoretical ecology, traditional studies based on dynamical stability and numerical simulations have not found a unified answer to the effect of network architecture on community persistence. Here, we introduce a mathematical framework based on the concept of structural stability to explain such a disparity of results. We investigated the range of conditions necessary for the stable coexistence of all species in mutualistic systems. We show that the apparently contradictory conclusions reached by previous studies arise as a consequence of overseeing either the necessary conditions for persistence or its dependence on model parameterization. We show that observed network architectures maximize the range of conditions for species coexistence. We discuss the applicability of structural stability to study other types of interspecific interactions

Common Organizing Mechanisms in Ecological and Socio-economic Networks

Previous work has shown that species interacting in an ecosystem and actors transacting in an economic context may have notable similarities in behavior. However, the specific mechanism that may underlie similarities in nature and human systems has not been analyzed. Building on stochastic food-web models, we propose a parsimonious bipartite-cooperation model that reproduces the key features of mutualistic networks - degree distribution, nestedness and modularity -- for both ecological networks and socio-economic networks. Our analysis uses two diverse networks. Mutually-beneficial interactions between plants and their pollinators, and cooperative economic exchanges between designers and their contractors. We find that these mutualistic networks share a key hierarchical ordering of their members, along with an exponential constraint in the number and type of partners they can cooperate with. We use our model to show that slight changes in the interaction constraints can produce either extremely nested or random structures, revealing that these constraints play a key role in the evolution of mutualistic networks. This could also encourage a new systematic approach to study the functional and structural properties of networks. The surprising correspondence across mutualistic networks suggests their broadly representativeness and their potential role in the productive organization of exchange systems, both ecological and social.Comment: In F. Reed-Tsochas and N. Johnson (eds.) Complex Systems and Interdisciplinary Sciences. London: World Scientific Publishing (in press

Tracking Traders' Understanding of the Market Using e-Communication Data

Tracking the volume of keywords in Internet searches, message boards, or Tweets has provided an alternative for following or predicting associations between popular interest or disease incidences. Here, we extend that research by examining the role of e-communications among day traders and their collective understanding of the market. Our study introduces a general method that focuses on bundles of words that behave differently from daily communication routines, and uses original data covering the content of instant messages among all day traders at a trading firm over a 40-month period. Analyses show that two word bundles convey traders' understanding of same day market events and potential next day market events. We find that when market volatility is high, traders' communications are dominated by same day events, and when volatility is low, communications are dominated by next day events. We show that the stronger the traders' attention to either same day or next day events, the higher their collective trading performance. We conclude that e-communication among traders is a product of mass collaboration over diverse viewpoints that embodies unique information about their weak or strong understanding of the market

Towards the integration of niche and network theories

The quest for understanding how species interactions modulate diversity has progressed by theoretical and empirical advances following niche and network theories. Yet, niche studies have been limited to describe coexistence within tropic levels despite incorporating information about multi-trophic interactions. Network approaches could address this limitation, but they have ignored the structure of species interactions within trophic levels. Here we call for the integration of niche and network theories to reach new frontiers of knowledge exploring how interactions within and across trophic levels promote species coexistence. This integration is possible due to the strong parallelisms in the historical development, ecological concepts, and associated mathematical tools of both theories. We provide a guideline to integrate this framework with observational and experimental studies

How structurally stable are global socioeconomic systems?

The stability analysis of socioeconomic systems has been centred on answering whether small perturbations when a system is in a given quantitative state will push the system permanently to a different quantitative state. However, typically the quantitative state of socioeconomic systems is subject to constant change. Therefore, a key stability question that has been under-investigated is how strongly the conditions of a system itself can change before the system moves to a qualitatively different behaviour, i.e. how structurally stable the systems is. Here, we introduce a framework to investigate the structural stability of socioeconomic systems formed by a network of interactions among agents competing for resources. We measure the structural stability of the system as the range of conditions in the distribution and availability of resources compatible with the qualitative behaviour in which all the constituent agents can be self-sustained across time. To illustrate our framework, we study an empirical representation of the global socioeconomic system formed by countries sharing and competing for multinational companies used as proxy for resources. We demonstrate that the structural stability of the system is inversely associated with the level of competition and the level of heterogeneity in the distribution of resources. Importantly, we show that the qualitative behaviour of the observed global socioeconomic system is highly sensitive to changes in the distribution of resources. We believe that this work provides a methodological basis to develop sustainable strategies for socioeconomic systems subject to constantly changing conditions

Multispecies coexistence in fragmented landscapes

Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.Spatial dynamics have long been recognized as an important driver of biodiversity. However, our understanding of species’ coexistence under realistic landscape configurations has been limited by lack of adequate analytical tools. To fill this gap, we develop a spatially explicit metacommunity model of multiple competing species and derive analytical criteria for their coexistence in fragmented heterogeneous landscapes. Specifically, we propose measures of niche and fitness differences for metacommunities, which clarify how spatial dynamics and habitat configuration interact with local competition to determine coexistence of species. We parameterize our model with a Bayesian approach using a 36-y time-series dataset of three Daphnia species in a rockpool metacommunity covering >500 patches. Our results illustrate the emergence of interspecific variation in extinction and recolonization processes, including their dependencies on habitat size and environmental temperature. We find that such interspecific variation contributes to the coexistence of Daphnia species by reducing fitness differences and increasing niche differences. Additionally, our parameterized model allows separating the effects of habitat destruction and temperature change on species extinction. By integrating coexistence theory and metacommunity theory, our study provides platforms to increase our understanding of species’ coexistence in fragmented heterogeneous landscapes and the response of biodiversity to environmental changes.Peer reviewe